2009 CFL Eastern Preview - Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Football Betting Lines

06/23/2009 - Winnipeg, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - East. 2008 Record: 8-10. Playoff Result: Lost, 29-21, to Edmonton in division semifinals. Stadium - Canada Inns Stadium. Capacity - 29,533. Colors: Blue and Gold

The good news for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last season was that they finished in second place in the CFL's Eastern Division. Unfortunately, the club posted an 8-10 record during the regular season, not exactly cause for celebration, and the team was bounced from the playoffs in the semifinal round. Sometimes offseasons can be boring and quiet. However, that wasn't the case for the Blue Bombers.

First, head coach Doug Berry was shown the door, and Brendan Taman resigned his general manager position. Mike Kelly took over as head coach, and his first major duty is deciding who will start at quarterback.

Kevin Glenn was released, so the quarterbacks battling for the nod from Kelly are Stefan Lefors and Ryan Dinwiddie. Lefors played very little as the third- string quarterback in Edmonton, but he showed enough ability in his limited playing time that Winnipeg wanted to bring him aboard. As for Dinwiddie, he has been a backup for the Blue Bombers and now hopes to prove that he can carry the load.

There is no question that he has talent, but an unproven quarterback will always be heavily scrutinized.

Whichever quarterback wins the job, he will be playing behind an offensive line that has some fresh faces. Dominic Picard and Alexandre Gauthier, a pair of reliable linemen, left via free agency. Dan Goodspeed was also lost in a trade, so it is hard to imagine that the line will not suffer.

Fred Reid, Derrick Armstrong and Romby Bryant do bring explosiveness to the offense. Reid, a smallish tailback at 5-8 and 185 pounds, Reid finished sixth overall in the CFL in 2008 with 709 rushing yards on 101 carries. Armstrong led the team with 81 receptions to go along with 1,010 yards and five touchdowns, while Bryant had 65 grabs for 1,206 yards and nine scores.

Defensively, Winnipeg has enough talent in place to hold opponents in check. James Johnson is a new addition to the secondary, and Bombers' fans will likely remember him as the guy who intercepted Dinwiddie three times in the 2007 Grey Cup.

Keep an eye on Barrin Simpson, who missed most of last season with an injury. The linebacker is back on the field, and that's bad news for opponents.

Overall, Winnipeg has plenty of talent, but questions at quarterback keep us from picking the Blue Bombers to win the East Division.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Finish: Second

Wevshots Football Betting News


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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.