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07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Chicago White Sox continue to try and fend off Detroit and Minnesota in the American League Central standings, all eyes are on general manager Kenny Williams to make something happen before next Saturday's trade deadline.
This is the time of year when the rumor mill is churning nonstop. Already, the White Sox have been linked to Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder, Nationals first baseman Adam Dunn and Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista. According to multiple reports in the Chicago media, the Brewers had a scout at Monday's White Sox game against Seattle. Fielder, who is eligible for free agency after the 2011 season, would seem to satisfy Chicago's search for a left-handed power hitter. All told, the White Sox have tallied a combined 16 homers and 73 RBI from the left side.
However, Williams said there are no imminent deals on the horizon.
"If I'm being honest and completely transparent right now of the price that is being asked for some of the players that we've inquired about, for us, it's more detrimental to our present and our future than we'd like," Williams said. "We'll see how that develops.
"But right now, I don't see anything materializing."
Manager Ozzie Guillen seems to realize as much, having recently dubbed resurgent second baseman Gordon Beckham as his key trade deadline acquisition, tongue-in-cheek of course. Beckham endured a miserable first half and was hitting just .199 a month ago, on June 23. But he has started to pick it up at the plate, and had an eight-game hit streak come to an end Tuesday night. During those eight games, Beckham was hitting .571 with four doubles, two homers and eight RBI.
"A lot of people ask for trades and we just made one," Guillen said. "We got Gordon Beckham. We didn't have him for two months. That's the big trade we make. Gordon is swinging the bat very well, and we need that in the bottom of the lineup to make that stronger."
Regarding the actual trade market, Guillen is well aware of the same few names being mentioned across the league -- specifically, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, and Adam Dunn.
"Kenny sees our team in a different way than I do," Guillen told the Chicago Tribune. "He sees what's missing. But from down here, I'm happy with what we have."
One guy the White Sox manager has enjoyed watching is Omar Vizquel, an 11-time Gold Glove winner at shortstop who has made a seamless switch to third base for Chicago this season. Of the 51 games Vizquel has played for his new team, 38 have come at the hot corner. Though he said playing third base hasn't exactly come naturally, he has conceded that he feels much more comfortable on the left side of the infield than at second base.
Regular third baseman Mark Teahen is recovering from a finger injury, but with Vizquel's stellar glove and offensive production -- he is hitting .301 in 34 games since Teahen went on the DL June 1 -- Teahen could find himself in a bench role upon returning. Guillen said he doesn't think Vizquel should lose his job, and would try to move Teahen all around and see how it works out.
The manager is also figuring out what to do about his closer, which he said is now an open job following Bobby Jenks' blown save in the 11th inning against Seattle Wednesday night, marking the second time Jenks has blown a lead during the current road trip. In four outings since the All-Star break, Jenks has allowed seven runs on seven hits while walking two in a span of 2 2/3 innings.
Of course, the last time Guillen opened the competition for the closer's job was May 9, after Jenks surrendered a game-winning home run to Toronto's Fred Lewis. But Jenks was able to hold onto the job, converting 15 straight save chances until Wednesday's meltdown. This time around, however, Guillen said he is seeing 'nothing' on the ball when Jenks pitches, and will do what he needs to win ballgames.
TRIBE OFF TO A HOT START IN SECOND HALF
Sometimes, the best thing for a struggling player, or team, is some time away from the game. That seems to be just what the doctor ordered for the Cleveland Indians, winners of six straight coming out of the break.
Considering the Tribe only sent Fausto Carmona to the Midsummer Classic, virtually the entire team got a nice breather after a tough first half. Cleveland completed a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers last weekend, then went on the road and took two straight from the Minnesota Twins, before coming back down to Earth with a 6-0 loss at Target Field Wednesday night.
Beginning Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays are in town for a three-game set, and if history is any indication, that's more good news for the Tribe. The Rays have lost their last 17 games at Progressive Field, a stretch that dates back to 2005. You read that last sentence correctly. The Rays, owners of the second-best record in baseball (57-37), have a 17-game road losing skid to the last-place Indians (40-55).
Although the Rays have the best road record in baseball (31-17), they are catching the Indians on the heels of their longest winning streak of the season.
"We're playing good baseball," said manager Manny Acta. "We're pitching well, catching the ball, getting timely hitting. As cliche as it may sound, that's how you win ballgames."
TIGERS STUMBLE OUT OF THE GATE
While some ballclubs come back sharper after some time off, others struggle to regain the momentum they had before the break. The Detroit Tigers fall into the latter category, having lost six in a row following the All-Star break.
Although they've finally woken up by winning each of their last two games, the Tigers are holding their breath when it comes to the health of Magglio Ordonez. According to the team's website, Ordonez has been dealing with a bothersome ankle since last weekend in Cleveland.
"It's getting better," Ordonez said Thursday afternoon, a day after being removed for a defensive replacement in the eighth inning against Texas. "I'm getting treatment right now."
Manager Jim Leyland has used Ordonez as a designated hitter twice this week, hoping to spare his ankle from as much trauma as possible. Ordonez indicated he may return to right field Friday night.
BLACKBURN BUMPED FROM TWINS' ROTATION
Nick Blackburn has finally run out of chances in the Minnesota Twins rotation. On Wednesday, manager Ron Gardenhire announced that he would be sending Blackburn to the bullpen and giving Friday's start to Brian Duensing. For Duensing, it marks his first start in a year.
"You try to make a few changes -- a little bullpen, a little starting rotation -- and see what happens," Gardenhire said. "We like our pitchers. It's just not been good enough right now. So you make a change here and there and see what happens. Whether it's going to get us on the right track, I don't know."
In 18 starts this season, Blackburn was 7-7 with a team-high 6.53 ERA and 19 home runs allowed. He had surrendered four or more earned runs in each of his last six starts. Blackburn had won 11 games in each of the last two seasons, but his struggles have been snowballing as this year has progressed.
Pitching coach Rick Anderson said he thinks "it's a good move for Blackburn probably more than anyone."
The Twins entered Friday tied with Detroit, two games behind Chicago in the division.
ROYALS DEAL CALLASPO FOR PITCHING HELP
The Kansas City Royals shook up their roster on Thursday, sending switch- hitting third baseman Alberto Callaspo to the Angels for right-hander Sean O'Sullivan and Double-A lefty Will Smith. The move came just prior to Thursday's series opener against the Yankees, with Callaspo being pulled from the lineup less than an hour before game time.
Callaspo had spent the past three seasons with Kansas City, hitting a respectable .293 in 317 games. This season, the 27-year-old Callaspo was hitting .275 with eight homers and 43 RBI in 88 starts. The move clears the path for Mike Moustakas, the organization's third baseman of the future, who was just promoted to Triple-A Omaha on July 15 after hitting .347 with 21 homers and 76 RBI in 66 games at Double-A Northwest Arkansas.
"We figured we were going to have to move Alberto at some point because of the guys we've got coming," general manager Dayton Moore told the Kansas City Star. "So we thought we'd better be proactive in trying to make a move. We got a couple of young pitchers we think can be part of our future."
In addition to making room for Moustakas, the Royals get some much needed pitching help. O'Sullivan, 22, could join the rotation as soon as Sunday's series finale at Yankee Stadium. A third-round pick in 2005, O'Sullivan was 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five games, including one start, for the Angels.
With the July 31 trade deadline fast approaching, there is a strong possibility that Callaspo won't be the last veteran player to leave Kansas City.
<< Rays hope to end epic winless drought in Cleveland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trying to remain in the hunt for first place in the
American League East, one would think the Tampa Bay Rays would welcome a trip
to Cleveland to face the last-place Indians.
Problem is, Tampa Bay hasn't won in 17 straight
<< Wood hopes for some support in Reds' clash with Astros
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a perfect world, Cincinnati Reds starter Travis Wood
would be trying for his third straight winning start. However, no offensive
support in a pair of 1-0 setbacks has the 23-year-old still in search of his
first major leag
<< Rangers seeking to stretch lead over Angels in AL West
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Runs were hard to come by for the Los Angeles Angels of
Anaheim in Thursday's opener of a four-game series versus the hosting Texas
Rangers. They'll need a quick fix tonight, given Joe Saunders' career-long
struggles against
<< Stars, Brunnstrom avoid arbitration
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars and Fabian Brunnstrom have
agreed to terms on a one-year contract that will pay the left wing $675,000
for the upcoming 2010-11 season.
The deal was struck Friday morning before a schedu
Wigan inks midfielder McArthur >>
Wigan, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Promising Hamilton midfielder James McArthur
has joined Wigan for an undisclosed transfer fee.
The 22-year-old has penned a four-year contract at the DW Stadium, where he
will team up with former Accies c
Canadian MLB Report: Axford making most of chance >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Multiple Canadian-born hurlers were
supposed to be impact pitchers for their respective teams in 2010, but the
first half of the year didn't exactly reflect those predictions. On the other
hand, some have ste
Cubs activate P Schlitter; option P Stevens >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs have activated right-handed
pitcher Brian Schlitter from the 15-day disabled list.
He was placed on the DL on July 7, retroactive to July 3, with a right
shoulder impingement.
Sch
Bengals sign third-round pick Ghee >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Bengals have signed
cornerback Brandon Ghee, the team's third-round draft choice.
He was the 96th overall selection in the 2010 NFL Draft.
The 6-0, 192-pound Ghee made 56 tackles,
Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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