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07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding themselves in a division trying to find itself.
A contradicting start to the season has caused some fog in the East, with pretenders playing contenders, and sleepers, well ... sleeping.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
The Argos woke up before everyone else this week, charging up on a home opener at the Rogers Centre to upset Calgary and improve to 2-1. Toronto's second straight win leaves the Boatman alone at the top of the East, and has given the club some rare wiggle room.
Anytime teams such as the Argos, who have had the league's worst offense and have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons, realize early success, proceed with caution.
It's a simple approach to not being fooled by a team's ability to temporarily suppress bad habits and rise to the occasion. But this Argos team - no matter the likelihood it has trouble maintaining this early success - is not the same one as past editions.
New coach Jim Barker has the Double Blue playing a new brand of football, one that comes from behind and wins close games.
With a quarterback controversy on paper all but erased - for now - former NFL signal-caller Cleo Lemon has emerged as Barker's man and looks as though he will be given the opportunity to grow into the game up north.
For the Argos, it's better than going south.
In light of the early game this week, here are Toronto's key players from the 27-24 win over Calgary in Week 3:
Offensive performer: Cory Boyd. Another man benefiting from a new voice calling the plays has been rookie running back Boyd (20 carries, 142 yards), who has strung together consecutive 100-yard games.
Defensive/special teams: Kevin Eiben. In his 11th year with the Boatman, Eiben continues to be a factor on the defensive end. After registering 11 tackles opening night in Calgary, the linebacker picked off two passes against Winnipeg in Week 2 and was a big reason the Argos beat Calgary in the second meeting of the two teams.
Next up: BC Lions. If the Argos can contain the run, the Boatman should improve to 3-1.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
It would be easy to say the Alouettes are primed to take a step back after a crushing defeat to open the season and then needing a 15-point fourth quarter to beat Edmonton. It also would be wrong.
Pedigree aside, the signs are there that perhaps the older the core of this roster gets, the less the regular season matters.
The defending champs aren't doing things with as much ease this season as in the past, but a game at BC can turn the situation around quickly.
That's, of course, if your name isn't the Montreal Alouettes. The league's true power over the last few seasons hasn't fared well in the Lions' Den, having gone winless at BC since 2001.
Despite their struggles, expect the streak to stop and the Als get back at the top.
Another thing to expect? Week 3's potential impact players:
Offensive performer: Kerry Watkins. If there's one team who could possibly stop Watkins, it might just be the Lions. Watkins has 158 yards on eight catches and three touchdowns this season, but should be in tough against the league's stingiest defense.
Defense performer: John Bowman. He tied for the league lead in 2009 with sacks, but the defensive stalwart has been a non-factor this year. Look for the Lions to wake him up.
Next up: Someone in scheduling likes the Als, given their three-game home stand beginning next week against Hamilton. Here come the Alouettes.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
A late comeback by the Toronto Argonauts is the only thing preventing the Bombers from being atop the East with a chance to go 3-0.
Fortunes weren't so kind to Winnipeg after all, as it squandered a golden opportunity against Toronto to get an early lead in what is shaping up to be a competitive division.
Just as few foresaw Hamilton's poor start, the same can be said for the Blue Bombers, albeit in a more positive light.
After trudging through a couple seasons of mediocrity, new coach Paul LaPolice must be pleased with what he's been given - an early offensive juggernaut with the confidence of a playoff team.
Whether they can sustain this type of production on the offensive end (their scoring differential of plus-18 is good for second in the CFL) will play itself out as the Bombers' schedule gets tougher.
For now, first-year Bombers quarterback Buck Pierce will likely continue to do what he's doing (42 of 60 for 657 yards and five touchdowns), giving Winnipeg a chance to outscore any opponent on any given night.
Offensive performer: Buck Pierce. After throwing to the other team more than his own last season (12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns), Pierce seems to have found a comfort zone in Winnipeg. If that's not enough, he completed 68 percent of his passes with two TDs and a 133.9 QB rating in Week 1 versus Hamilton, who the Bombers play again this week.
Defensive/special teams: Jovon Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the cornerback out of the University of Iowa has proved to be a sparkplug on the defensive end. Johnson, who picked off CFL quarterbacks six times last year, has been solid on special teams in 2010, returning 14 punts for a total of 114 yards.
Next up: First their rematch with Hamilton and then home to face Edmonton. Winnipeg must take advantage of this weak stretch before the schedule gets tougher.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
The Ti-Cats can't move any further down the standings, but they can move further away from the pack.
Although Hamilton remains winless and at the bottom of the East, there's reason to believe it can still turn this season around and mimic the contending team that many predicted in the preseason.
After a tough loss on the road in Week 1 against an inspired Winnipeg squad, Hamilton didn't show up for the second half last week against Calgary and now must navigate through a tough part of the schedule.
Offensive performer: Kevin Glenn followed up a dismal opener in carving up the Stampeders' secondary for 356 yards on 26-of-34 passing.
Defensive/special teams: About the only bright spot for Hamilton this year has been the steady play of linebacker Jamall Johnson, whose size and speed creates havoc for offensive players in the middle. His 18 tackles lead the league and should help shrink the field for Pierce and the Bombers' offense this week.
Next up: After Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats hit the road for back-to-back contests versus Montreal and Saskatchewan. Suddenly, Week 3 is looking like a must-win for Hamilton.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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