Chris Paul's "Big Three" Fantasy May Be Just That

Basketball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Paul is looking to follow in the footsteps of his good friend LeBron James and form his own trio of star players in the hopes of winning an NBA championship. The Hornets' talented point guard reportedly has told the club he wants to be traded and has given a wish list of four teams to which he'd like to be dealt. The Knicks top that list with the Magic being his second choice, followed by the Mavericks and Trailblazers.

I can't blame Paul for wanting to leave New Orleans to pursue a title, but he'll have a much more difficult time putting himself in the kind of position LeBron did in Miami since he's not a free agent like James was. In all likelihood, the exchange of talent it would take to acquire Paul would leave that team with a very weak supporting cast, and some clubs may not even have the players it will take to make the deal. Let's take a look at what the four teams face that are on Paul's wish list.

KNICKS: Paul would join Amar'e Stoudemire in New York, but that's where the good news would begin and end. A trade for Paul would leave the rest of the roster, which isn't very good at this point, even worse. The Big Apple may be his first choice, but I say it would be his worst choice if he hopes to win an NBA Championship.

MAGIC: I'm sure Dwight Howard would love to have Paul join him in Orlando and give him the chance to play with a point guard that actually makes other players better. But I have to wonder if the Magic have the pieces to pull off this deal. Other than Jameer Nelson, I don't see any other players that would be attractive to the Hornets. Even if the Magic were able to acquire Paul, they'd still be a long way from competing with the likes of the Lakers and Heat. After the Big Two of Howard and Paul, you're left with a supporting cast that's weaker than last year's that failed so badly in the playoffs.

MAVERICKS: The combination of Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki has produced some very good teams in Dallas, but zero NBA championships. Even though Paul would be a significant upgrade over the aging Kidd, it wouldn't be nearly enough to make Dallas serious title contenders.

TRAIL BLAZERS: Of the four teams reportedly on Paul's wish list, Portland has the best talent to make the deal, but once again would probably be left with a roster that wouldn't be in a position to contend for a championship.

QUICK DRIBBLES

It's a free agent signing that won't get much attention, but the Lakers made a terrific move with the addition of Matt Barnes. He's an excellent defender who can also knock down the open jump shot, and there should be plenty of those available playing with Kobe and Gasol.

The Heat re-signed free agent point guard Carlos Arroyo. "By re-signing Carlos, we feel we have accomplished another big step in adding to this team," Heat president Pat Riley said." A big step? I didn't realize bringing back a player that averaged 6.1 points and 3.1 assists in 22 minutes would elicit such a reaction.

Former Knicks guard Allan Houston reportedly is the front-runner to be the club's next general manager under team president Donnie Walsh. I guess owner James Dolan wants the Knicks to continue to be irrelevant by hiring a GM with no experience or track record.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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