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06/02/2010 - Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: IZOD IndyCar. Date: Saturday, June 5. Race: Firestone 550k. Site: Texas Motor Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile tri-oval. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. (et). Laps: 228. Miles: 550 (kilometers). 2009 winner: Helio Castroneves. Television: VERSUS. Radio: IMS Radio Network/SIRIUS XM Satellite.
After winning the Indianapolis 500 in dominating fashion last Sunday, Dario Franchitti made a strong statement in his bid for a second straight IZOD IndyCar Series championship.
Franchitti led 155 of 200 laps to claim his second Indy 500 victory. His first win came in 2007.
"To win two of these things is pretty special," Franchitti said. "They showed me a list of two time winners. Those guys are legends. I said the other night, I'm just a driver, those guys are legends. I'm so lucky to be drive for Chip [Ganassi] and Team Target, getting in good cars, especially having gone away after we won in '07. To be invited back was pretty cool. To have won a championship and an Indy 500, I didn't expect any of this."
Franchitti collected nearly $2.8 million for his Indy 500 win.
"That's a lot of money in any currency," he said. "This race just gets better and better, and I think we're getting back to the glory days. I'm so proud to be back here and be a part of it. It's home for me."
Franchitti not only gave Ganassi his fourth Indy 500 victory as a team owner, but also helped Ganassi become the only owner to win the Indy 500 and the Daytona 500 in the same year. Jamie McMurray, in his first year with Earnhardt Ganassi Racing in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, won the Daytona 500 in February.
With six of 17 races completed on the 2010 IndyCar schedule, Franchitti is just 11 points behind leader Will Power from Team Penske.
Franchitti has recorded 14 career IndyCar victories, but has yet to win at the 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway. His best finish in six starts at Texas is second, which came in 2004. He started on the pole there in '04 and last year.
Helio Castroneves is the defending race winner.
Castroneves' Penske teammate, Ryan Briscoe, dominated the race by leading 160 of 228 laps, but Castroneves beat Briscoe out of the pits during final round of stops and took the lead for good with 53 laps remaining. The Brazilian has not won a race since one year ago at Texas.
After sustaining multiple injuries during a hard crash in the closing laps of the Indy 500, Mike Conway will be out of the No.24 Dreyer and Reinbold Racing car for at least three months. The team has yet to name a driver for Saturday's race at Texas.
Conway had surgery to repair fractures to his lower left leg. He also has a soft tissue injury to his lower left leg and is expected to have another surgical procedure later this week. Conway also suffered a compression fracture of one of his thoracic vertebrae. He has been fitted for a back brace, which he will wear for the next few months.
Ryan Hunter-Reay also was involved in the late-race crash at Indy. Hunter-Reay had surgery on his left thumb and was fitted with a carbon fiber splint, which should allow him to participate at Texas.
Twenty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Firestone 550k.
<< Summer stand-alone season begins with Nashville
Lebanon, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, June
5. Race: Federated Auto Parts 300. Site: Nashville Superspeedway. Track:
1.333-mile D-shaped concrete oval. Start time: 8:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 225.
Miles: 300. 2009 w
<< Nothing tricky about Pocono for Hamlin
Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, June
6. Race: Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500. Site: Pocono Raceway. Track: (2.5-mile
triangle. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 500. 2009 winner: Tony
Stewart.
<< Ken Griffey Jr. retires
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ken Griffey Jr. has announced his retirement
from baseball Wednesday just two months into his 22nd major league season.
Griffey informed the Mariners before Wednesday's game against Minnesota and
retires
<< Doan, Miller and Crosby named finalists for Messier Award
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Phoenix Coyotes captain Shane Doan,
Buffalo Sabres goaltender Ryan Miller and Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby have been
selected as 2010 finalists for the Mark Messier Leadership Award.
The award recog
Rangers' Guerrero hurts eye, taken to hospital >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers outfielder/designated hitter
Vladimir Guerrero was taken to a Chicago hospital after suffering an eye
injury during batting practice.
Guerrero was taking swings in the batting cage, and a ball car
Arizona State lifts interim tag from baseball coach Esmay >>
Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arizona State lifted the interim tag of baseball
coach Tim Esmay, giving him the job on a permanent basis.
Esmay took over in December to replace Pat Murphy, who resigned after more
than 15 years in the posi
Briere's PP goal gives Flyers lead after one period in Game 3 >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Briere's power-play goal late in the
first period gave the Philadelphia Flyers a 1-0 edge over the Chicago
Blackhawks after 20 minutes of play in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals from
Wachovia Center.
Blown call costs Detroit's Galarraga perfect game >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Armando Galarraga was one out away from the
third perfect game of 2010 and the second in less than a week, but a blown
call by first base umpire Jim Joyce cost him immortality.
After retiring the first 26 batte
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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