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03/10/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While all three of NASCAR's national touring series take a break, the IZOD IndyCar Series and Formula One kick off their 2010 seasons this weekend. IndyCar will run on the streets of Sao Paulo, Brazil for the first time, and F1 will be in Sakhir, Bahrain.
IZOD INDYCAR SERIES
Sao Paulo Indy 300 - Streets of Sao Paulo - Sao Paulo, Brazil
The IndyCar Series -- with new title sponsor IZOD -- will compete in South America for the first time with the Sao Paulo Indy 300 on the streets of Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Dario Franchitti also will begin his campaign to repeat as series champion. Franchitti ended the 2009 season with an 11-point margin over his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon. Four of his five wins last year came on road/street courses.
Seventeen races make up the 2010 IndyCar schedule, but nine of them take place on road/street circuits. The first oval race is scheduled for May 1 at Kansas -- the fifth event on the schedule.
"This year, with nine road and street courses, it's going to be very challenging," Franchitti said. "There are going to be lots of different drivers vying for wins, so we're going to have to be very focused and paying attention all the time."
In the last five years, three drivers went on to win the series championship after winning an inaugural race at a track. Dan Wheldon won the first event at St. Petersburg, FL and the series title in 2005. Dixon picked up the victory in the inaugural race at Edmonton during his 2008 championship season.
Franchitti won the first race at Iowa in 2007, the year he won his first series title. He also won both inaugural events on the '09 schedule -- Long Beach, CA and Toronto -- en route to his second championship.
Brazil will become the fourth country outside the United States to hold an IndyCar event after Canada, Japan and Australia. Canada (Edmonton and Toronto) and Japan continue to be on the schedule. The series held an exhibition race in Surfers Paradise, Australia at the conclusion of the '07 season.
Six Brazilian drivers -- Helio Castroneves, Tony Kanaan, Raphael Matos, Vitor Meira, Mario Romancini and Ana Beatriz -- will compete in front of their home crowd. Last month, all six competitors met with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and then toured the 2.6-mile, 11-turn Sao Paulo street course.
"I really like the race circuit," Castroneves said. "It has two really long straightaways, and it will be great for the fans. It is going to be a challenge for our Team Penske engineers to set up the car because of the changes between road surfaces, but it's going to be fun to drive."
Romancini and Beatriz are expected to make their first IndyCar starts in Brazil. Beatriz will drive a Dreyer & Reinbold-prepared car.
"This is very special for me doing my debut in the IZOD IndyCar race at my home event," Beatriz said. "It's also very special to be the first female Brazilian race car driver to race there, and it will be a great experience."
Romancini will run a full-time schedule for Conquest Racing.
"To have my first race in my hometown, in front of all my people, family and friends, will be amazing," Romancini said. "I am very excited for this moment and for sure couldn't ask for a better place."
Takuma Sato, a former Formula One competitor and native of Tokyo, and Swiss driver Simona de Silvestro also will make their series debuts this weekend.
FORMULA ONE
Bahrain Grand Prix - Bahrain International Circuit - Sakhir, Bahrain
Amid the blistering desert heat, the 2010 Formula One season gets underway this weekend with the Bahrain Grand Prix. Three new teams -- Hispania Racing Team (HRT), Lotus Racing and Virgin Racing -- will make their debuts at Bahrain, but Michael Schumacher will be the center of attention as the seven- time F1 champion returns to the sport.
After three years of retirement, the 41-year-old German is making a comeback with the newly formed Mercedes GP team. Mercedes-Benz recently acquired Brawn GP, which captured the constructors' title and drivers' championship with Jenson Button in the team's maiden season last year.
Schumacher considered a comeback with Ferrari last August to replace the injured Felipe Massa for the remainder of the season but had to rule out the possibility of a return due to injuries he sustained during a motorcycle accident earlier in the year.
When Schumacher signed a multi-year contract to drive for Mercedes in December, he was reunited with team principal Ross Brawn, who guided him to two world championships with Benetton and five with Ferrari.
"The decision to make my comeback feels like a long time ago now, and I can hardly wait for the season to get underway in Bahrain," Schumacher said. "It's funny to think that I will be competing in Formula One again when just a few months ago, I would have declined the opportunity categorically."
Right now, it's anyone's guess who the favorites are for this year's drivers' and constructors' championships.
After winning last year's title, Jenson Button has teamed up with 2008 champion and British compatriot Lewis Hamilton at McLaren. Button recorded six wins in the first seven grand prix last season when he drove for Brawn. He won at Bahrain, which was the fourth race on the '09 calendar.
"I'm really looking forward to getting into my car on Friday morning in Bahrain and knowing that I'm the world champion," Button said. "It's a responsibility and an honor, but it's something I'm going to enjoy for as long as I can."
Two-time champion Fernando Alonso has moved over from Renault to join Felipe Massa at Ferrari. Massa is healthy again after a high speed crash in qualifying at Hungary last July curtailed his '09 season.
Nico Rosberg has paired up with Schumacher to make Mercedes a perennial threat, while Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber hope to give Red Bull another stellar season.
Starting with Bahrain, teams are prohibited from refueling their cars after they have left pit lane prior to the start of the race. F1 has not enacted a fuel ban since the 1993 Australian Grand Prix.
Other rule changes that go into effect this season include: limited sets of tires for race weekends, tougher penalties for engine changes (loss of 10 starting grid positions) and a revised points system.
This will be the seventh time F1 runs at Bahrain International Circuit but the first on the track's new configuration. Bahrain recently increased to 3.914 miles (6.299 km) in length, making it the second longest circuit on the current schedule. Belgium's Spa-Francorchamps has a distance of 4.352 miles. (7.004 km).
Built on former desert, the 23-turn Bahrain track sits less than 20 miles south of the kingdom's capital city of Manama.
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Sao Paulo, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: IndyCar. Date: Sunday, March 14.
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Television
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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