This Week in Auto Racing May 22 - May 25

Autoracing Betting Lines

05/20/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This is the week that all racing fans have been waiting for, particularly Sunday when there is racing around the clock. It starts early on Sunday with the historic Grand Prix of Monaco, then returns to the states for the 92nd running of the Indianapolis 500. The day closes around midnight when the checkered flag drops on the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte.

INDYCARS

Indianapolis 500 - Indianapolis Motor Speedway - Indianapolis, IN

After a long three weeks of preparation and qualifying its time to get down to actual racing. Eleven rows of three cars will squeeze onto the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and begin to accelerate down the front straight for 200 laps and a chance at immortality.

If you win the 92nd running of the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing," your name and likeness are forever enshrined on the Borg-Warner Trophy. You are seen on every television station and highlights of your win are seen around the world.

This year there doesn't seem to be an odd-on favorite as in some past years, but Scott Dixon, at 3-1, is the bettor's choice.

Dixon will start on the pole after posting a four-lap average of 226.366 m.p.h. The No.9 Target Chip Ganassi Racing driver and 2003 IndyCar Series champion, has three podium finishes this season in four starts, including a series-opening win at Homestead in March.

If Dixon can't get it done, then his teammate at Ganassi Dan Wheldon would be one of the next logical choices. Wheldon was second quickest on Pole Day and will start in the middle of the front row. The No.10 Ganassi driver has three top-fives and comes off a win at the Kansas Speedway a month ago, He won this event in 2005.

If previously winning the "500" is an indicator of performance then Helio Castroneves would have to be the race favorite. The Brazilian has won the race twice - in 2001 and again in 2002, finished second in 2003 and third last year.

Other drivers on the list of those who have a chance to win the race would have to include: 2004 IndyCar Series champion Tony Kanaan, front row starter Ryan Briscoe, Marco Andretti and Danica Patrick. The list does not include last year's winner, Dario Franchitti, who jumped to NASCAR for 2008 and is currently "on the bench" with a broken left ankle.

Kanaan, from the Andretti Green Racing stable, has come close with three top- five finishes in six career starts.

Marco Andretti is the fifth Andretti family member to race in the famed "500." The patriarch of the family, Mario Andretti won the race in 1969 and sat on the pole three times in 29 starts. He led an amazing 556 laps at Indy over his career.

Marco's father Michael Andretti made 16 starts at Indy and although he never won the race (as a driver), led 431 laps and was seemingly "snake-bit" on the historic 2.5-mile superspeedway. In 1991, he led with twelve laps remaining, but finished second to Rick Mears. The following year, Michael dominated the race, leading 80% of the laps (160), but with eleven laps remaining his fuel pump failed and his car coasted to a stop. He also dropped out of the race while leading in 1989, 1995 and 2003. John Andretti made eight starts at Indy while Jeff made three starts. Marco finished 24th last year, but in 2006 he just missed immortality, finishing second to Sam Hornish Jr.

And then there is Danica.

In three starts at Indy, Patrick has finished fourth, eighth and eighth. Earlier this season she became the first woman to win an IndyCar race when she took the checkered flag out front in Motegi, Japan.

But the Japanese race was won primarily through pit strategy and fuel conservation. There has been a disturbing trend in many of her races. She qualifies well, but drops back early in an event and has to work her way back through the field.

Patrick is starting in the middle of the second row on Sunday. I'd like to see her stay in the top-five for the first half of the race. That would probably keep her out of trouble and surrounded by veteran drivers. Then late in the race she would be right there in line for a historic win. A late-race pass for the lead and the win at Indy would be the crowning jewel for anyone's resume, especially Danica's.

Could it happen? Yes.

Will it happen? Probably not.

This is the year for Target Chip Ganassi Racing to shine. I'm going with Dixon or Wheldon to be gulping the tradition bottle of milk after the race is over.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup

Coca-Cola 600 - Lowe's Motor Speedway - Concord, NC

The last time the series was in real action, Kyle Busch won in Darlington to expand his championship lead to 79 points over Jeff Burton and annoy all the Earnhardt Jr. fans. But for the drivers at the top of the standings, who are feeling comfortable about making the "Chase," it's about wins.

Every win during the "regular" season earns a driver 10 points in the "Chase for the Sprint Cup." So far, Busch has earned 30 points for his three wins. Carl Edwards also has three wins, but a tainted win in Las Vegas cost him the 10 playoff points. He has earned 20 so far. Other drivers to win a race and earn a 10-point bonus are" Burton (10), Denny Hamlin (10), Clint Bowyer (10), Jimmie Johnson (10) and Ryan Newman (10).

Of those winners, only Newman is currently outside the top-12 and not in the "Chase."

Newman has struggled since winning the 2008 Daytona 500. He has just four top-10s in the 10 races since the February win and finished outside the Top-30 in three events. His efforts have been mirrored by most of the Dodge-powered drivers. Newman, at 13th in the standings, is still the top-ranked Dodge driver along with Kasey Kahne, 426 points behind Busch.

Since the Daytona 500, no Dodge driver has visited Victory Lane. Toyota has been there four times. Chevrolet and Ford drivers have won three times each. But Dodge has not been back. Dodge-powered cars won just three times last year, so the frustration is nothing new.

Kurt Busch, Newman's teammate on the normally powerful Penske Team, is also confused by their results.

"Honestly, I am really shocked at the horrible luck this Miller Lite team is having this year," Busch said. "We are just struggling to get our car to turn and have been testing our rear ends off trying to come up with something."

Penske is not alone in their frustration. The Chip Ganassi Racing team of Juan Pablo Montoya (16th overall), Reed Sorenson (31st) and injured rookie Dario Franchitti (40th) have performed less than expected.

The Ganassi teams have even tried swapping crew chiefs around, but nothing has helped. And owner Chip Ganassi is getting frustrated.

"These guys, these teams are not talking to each other, they are not working together, they are not using all the resources that are available to them," said Ganassi. "That's how you end up in a fix like this."

Of the No.41 team Ganassi, not one to mince words, got right to the point - "Everybody on the No.41 team is going to have to take a good look in the mirror and ask themselves if they are prepared for what's coming down the pike...It's a tough sport, a tough damn business and we really are a better organization than this."

With Dodge drivers ranked 13th, 14th and 16th - there is still hope that up to three drivers could crack the top-12 and make the season-ending "Chase."

But they will have to start there "playoff" run soon, the sooner the better. In fact, the Coca-Cola 600 would be a great place to start.

Casey Mears won last year's race, beating the field and J.J. Yeley by 9.561 seconds in a late-race fuel run. Dodge drivers Kyle Petty and Sorenson finished third and fourth, respectively.

Nationwide

Carquest Auto Parts 300 - Lowe's Motor Speedway - Concord, NC

With all the great racing this weekend, it's likely that the Nationwide Series race and the truck races on Saturday will be overlooked. But the racing is pretty good and the championship is still up for grabs.

While Tony Stewart won the last race, it was Clint Bowyer's second-place finish that helped him put some distance between himself and the competition. The No.2 Chevrolet driver has built his lead to 112 points over Kyle Busch and 150 over defending series champion Carl Edwards when both drivers had trouble at Darlington. Edwards completed just three laps and an accident stopped Busch after just 101 laps.

But it appears that the trio along with David Reutimann and Mike Bliss will compete for the top-five throughout the season. Bliss' only series win to date came at the 2004 fall race at the Lowe's Motor Speedway when he drove for Joe Gibbs Racing. Add rising start David Ragan and youngster Brad Keselowski and you have the makings for a good title chase.

Stewart winner of the last race, and four of six starts in the series, is not on the entry list this week. But that doesn't mean the race is open for anyone to win. Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have won have been victorious in the last six races and eight of 12 this season.

With Denny Hamlin sitting in the driver's seat of a JGR Toyota, don't be surprised if they make is seven in a row. Kasey Kahne won the 2007 Carquest Auto Parts 300 and is back to defend his title. Kahne is coming off a win in the Sprint All-Star Race after the fans voted him into the main event.

If momentum is a factor, maybe Kahne can find a way to upset the JGR juggernaut.

Craftsman

Ohio 250 - Mansfield Motorsports Speedway - Mansfield, OH

The Craftsman Truck Series will run an early Saturday afternoon race at the tiny 0.50-mile Mansfield Motorsports Speedway oval. Short track specialist Dennis Setzer is the defending champion after he edged Jack Sprague by 0.522 seconds.

Setzer did it by completing all 250 laps without a pit stop. The race was interrupted by three rain delays and more than 100 caution-flag laps, but with 27 laps to go Rick Crawford led Setzer, Aaron Fike, Sprague and Ken Schrader to the restart.

Crawford's No.14 Ford pulled away from the field on the restart, but with 20 laps remaining Setzer started to chip away at Crawford's lead.

With 13 laps left a flat right-front tire for Crawford caused him to slide high on the track allowing Setzer to make the pass for first. Crawford brought out the caution flag as parts of his tire spread across the track.

Setzer led Fike and Sprague to the restart with only five laps to go. As Setzer held onto the lead Sprague would drive into second. After making the pass for second, Sprague set his sights on the leader. But the No.75 Chevrolet wasn't going to be caught as he crossed the finish line with a comfortable lead.

Ron Hornaday Jr. leads the 2008 Craftsman Truck Series championship, but eight drivers are within 78 points of the defending series champion. Crawford is just five points back, Todd Bodine is just 38 points back and last week's North Carolina Education Lottery 200 winner Matt Crafton is 45 points behind the leader. Crafton won for the first time in 178 races, a record number for series starts without a first win.

The Carolina race went back to green with 16 to go and Erik Darnell led Johnny Benson, Bodine and Crafton. When Darnell spun his tires on a restart, Benson passed him, but before the start/finish line and he was black-flagged by NASCAR officials. Crafton inherited the lead and would not give it up the rest of the way. It was Crafton's third top-five result in the last four races.

Could this be the start of a championship run for the previously little-known driver from Tulare, CA.?

Check in on Saturday afternoon to find out.

FORMULA ONE

Grand Prix of Monaco - Streets of Monte Carlo - Monte Carlo, Monaco

The Formula One traveling road show brings its circus to the narrow streets of downtown Monte Carlo for its traditional and most famous event of the season.

The Grand Prix stands alongside other racing events such as the Daytona 500, 24 Hours of Lemans and Indianapolis 500 as one of the great events in motorsports.

However, despite its prestige, star-studded audience and long history that dates back to 1950, the race presents many challenges to the teams. While it may be the height of glamour for the spectators, for the teams, the reality of working at Monaco is very different.

The nature of the 2.075-mile street circuit also makes it very hard to simulate during test sessions, resulting in it being one of the most unpredictable races.

It is a tricky track with plenty of slow-speed corners, forcing drivers to work hard throughout the 78-lap race.

However, despite such confining streets and very low average speeds, the cars still manage to reach speeds in excess of 175 m.p.h. This, coupled with the absence of gravel traps between the track and unforgiving steel barriers, leaves the drivers with no margin for error if they want to see the checkered flag.

"Monaco is the most difficult circuit on the calendar because of the nature of the street circuit and its surface. You're never more than a few inches from the barriers making overtaking a perilous task if not impossible," said three- time world champion Niki Lauda.

"Whatever else one thinks about it, the Monaco Grand Prix is just special," said Michael Schumacher. "Rushing round the track almost touching the barriers not only increases one's motivation, but is also a real challenge. The real peculiarity about it is that it is really narrow. There are some parts where you cannot even see the apex of a corner until you are actually on it and that adds to the excitement."

Even the slightest error here is punished," continued Michael. "Finding the limit on a road generally used for normal traffic, which is completely different to a usual race track, is always difficult. You also have to consider how much you can let the car slide, which it wants to do all the time. It is very exciting"

So is the championship. It appears that six drivers and three teams will vie for the title. Ferrari has the inside track with defending World Champion Kimi Raikkonen on top of the standings. Raikkonen, who won in Malaysia and Spain, holds a seven-point edge over teammate Felipe Massa and McLaren rival Lewis Hamilton.

But Hamilton has been seemingly nowhere since winning the season opener in Australia. Massa, on the other hand, started the season by failing to finish the first two events. Since then he has collected two wins and a second-place to climb back into the championship.

The biggest surprise this year has been the competitiveness of the BMW Sauber team. Robert Kubica (fourth overall) and Nick Heidfeld (fifth) have earned eight top-five between them and sit second in the manufacturer's championship.

Fernando Alonso is the defending race winner, although he did it in a McLaren, not the Renault he will bring to the starting grid this week. He also won the pole which on the narrow streets is usually what happens.

Watch the pole qualifying session. The drivers know how important track position is at Monaco and the competition for the pole is often more exciting than the actual race.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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