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07/30/2010 - Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After six exciting days and 30 hard- fought games of round-robin competition, the 2010 International Baseball Federation World Junior Baseball Championship is set to begin the medal round. Anything but predictable, the round-robin portion of the tournament had a touch of everything, from pitching gems to nail-biting, walk-off wins. Fans in Thunder Bay have been treated all week to a world class display of the best young talent the game has to offer.
Even before the first pitch was thrown, the drama had begun. Less than 24 hours before the start of the championship, the IBAF announced that Team Venezuela had dropped out of the tournament amid speculation of visa troubles, only to be reinstated the following day, enabling them to play in their second scheduled game. While Venezuela stumbled to a 1-4 record in round-robin play, their eventual participation in the tournament can be viewed as a minor victory.
Perhaps the most shocking storyline to emerge out of the preliminary round was powerhouse Cuba's 3-2 record and fourth-place finish in Pool B. Cuba enjoyed a blazing-hot start to the tournament capturing wins in each of their first three contests while outscoring their opponents 29-1, but following a 6-5 loss to the defending champions from South Korea in their fourth game, Team Cuba was beaten in extra innings by tournament underdogs the Netherlands. As a result, a potential gold-medal-game scenario will now take place in just the quarterfinals, as Cuba will take on undefeated Team USA.
"You never know what is going to happen in a tournament," said Team USA assistant manager Tom Succow. "I think all different types of things occur when you have a round-robin with as many games as we've played in the past week. The fact that we have drawn Cuba and Cuba has drawn us, it's not shocking,"
Equally unpredictable was Wednesday night's surprise thriller between Team Canada and the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic came into the game winless and hungry to upset the host nation in front of a patriotic sold out Port Arthur Stadium, and almost delivered another shocking tournament upset. After being up 6-2 through seven innings, Canada chipped away until Dalton Pompey hit a walk-off, opposite-field blast into the corner in the bottom of the ninth that gave Canada a quarterfinal berth versus Italy. Had Canada lost to the Czechs they would have had a much more daunting task in the round of eight, facing a talented Chinese Taipei team whose only loss came to gold-medal favorites Team USA.
Canada's path to the gold medal game could not have been scripted any better for the host nation. Should Canada beat Italy on Friday, they would face the winner of Team Netherlands and Chinese Taipei in the first semi-final matchup Saturday afternoon. Arguably the three toughest matchups in the entire tournament for Canada have fallen to the opposite side of the medal round bracket. In the process, Cuba, USA and South Korea are likely to beat up on each other vying for the remaining spot in the gold medal final. This all bodes well for a Canadian team looking to build off the momentum of a walk-off win but if we've learned anything from this past week, it's that nothing is certain. With the tournament shifting to single-game knock out, there's an even smaller margin for error, and an upset at this stage of the game doesn't permit for second chances.
Even though the round-robin hasn't shaken down exactly as experts had projected, contending teams are echoing the pragmatic words of Succow.
"You've got to play the best teams to win the gold medal...our mind set is to win the gold medal."
<< Knicks' Stoudemire in Israel to trace Hebrew roots
JERUSALEM (AP) -NBA star Amare Stoudemire says he has come to Israel to explore whether he has Jewish heritage.He tells The Associated Press on Friday that he believes he has ``Hebrew roots'' through his mother, Carrie.The five-time All-Star who rec
<< Van den Berg wins on Sunshine Tour
Port Elizabeth, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ulrich van den Berg shot an
even-par 72 on Friday, but it was enough to capture the Vodacom Business
Origins of Golf event.
Van den Berg finished at 14-under 202 and won by a strok
<< Redskins sign first-round pick Williams
Ashburn, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Redskins have signed their
first-round draft pick, offensive tackle Trent Williams.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the Washington Post reports it to be
worth $60 million over six
<< Redskins sign No. 4 overall pick Trent Williams
ASHBURN, Va. (AP) -The Washington Redskins have reached an agreement with No. 4 overall pick Trent Williams on a six-year, $60 million contract.Williams plans to sign the deal in the morning and will then take part in Friday's practice at training c
Tigers bring up Frazier; designate Larish for assignment >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers have purchased the contract
of outfielder Jeff Frazier from Triple-A Toledo and opened a roster spot for
the slugger by designating infielder Jeff Larish for assignment.
Frazier was hitti
Blue Jays seek fourth straight victory in opener with Indians >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays take aim at their fourth straight win
this evening when they open a three-game series against the Cleveland Indians
at Rogers Centre.
Toronto started its six-game homestand in impressive fashion, as i
Tigers hope to stop road skid in clash with Red Sox >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers are quickly falling out of contention in
the American League Central. Tonight, they try to put the brakes on their 10-
game road losing streak when they open a three-game series against the Boston
Red Sox a
Yankees open key set with Rays; A-Rod tries again for 600th homer >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez's quest to become the youngest player in
baseball history with 600 home runs takes him to St. Petersburg where the New
York Yankees open a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana
Field.
Ro
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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